Saturday, August 7, 2010

Pre Pre-Season Euphoria

August is when I suffer the most. The NBA season is still 3 months away and my Ducks don't start until September. What to do? Well, August also coincides with my full recovery from the Blazers season just passed. The mourning is over. Everything black has been put away. It's a new dawn, and I'm reborn. Still, I must survive August. So, that's when I haul out DVD's of each Blazers win last season, and every day or so, I watch a win.

Since most prognosticators base their predictions on leftover feelings and impressions, and on how they value the team's off-season maneuvers, you get a very similar forecast from each of them. Ever notice how rarely their predictions come to pass?

Well, this fortune-teller adds an additional vapor to the mist and incense the others depend on: reviewing 50 actual games (instead of depending upon receding memories). Some undeniable facts are: 1) Greg Oden really was beginning to be a beast on both ends of the floor and he was beginning to minimize his fouling; 2) LaMarcus will be just fine being LaMarcus...forget trying to get him to be Maurice Lucas, Buck Williams or Brian Grant - LA's game will elevate just by being in the vicinity of consistent defensive play from Greg, Camby and Pryz (yes, Joel will be just fine by training camp); and 3) the Blazers were (pre-major injuries) the league leading defensive team. But you say, "What about the offense?" Well, good defense, blocked shots, steals and forced turnovers lead to more possessions than the other team gets, and if you can get your overall FG% to 48%, you'll be more than just fine.

So, my optimism is based on the following hunches:
- everyone comes to camp healthy and ready;
- Nicolas Batum makes another solid leap (doesn't have to be a quantum one) from last year;
- Camby gets the majority of the back-up PF minutes;
- Joel adjusts positively to reduced minutes;
- the team realizes that Wesley Matthews shoots 3's at 52%(!!!!) from one of the corners;
- Dante continues to stretch his effective shooting range out farther (he'll see some time at SF);
- the offense gets revamped so that Brandon doesn't have to dribble the clock away;
- the team is very long; plus, they've added aggression in the form of Matthews, Johnson and Williams;
- their top pick, Luke Babbitt, will become one of the league's best designated shooters someday - perhaps by the playoffs (i.e., zero defense but DEADLY). He'll be used in spot minutes to pound coffin nails; and
- they will mesh as a team.

Prediction: Division Winner and Western Conference Finalist

It's bold, I know. Reckless? Perhaps. But I feel that last season's ER revolving door was a one-time nightmare which won't be repeated by this team this year. If they meld as a team, play to their strengths and think BIG, they can do it.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Stats Dont Lie

This goes out to my other reader. Here are some statistics about our Blazers and some observations thereof:

Utilizing 3-point shooting as a staple in a team's arsenal is only beneficial (vs. 2-point shooting) if the team hits better than 33% of the time. Given that, let's peruse some stats:
- Batum, clearly the Blazers' best, is the only one shooting better than 40% (43.1%). Statistically, Nic is a NBA Top Ten 3-point shooter and he's only going to get better;
- Rudy & Martell hit at about a 37% clip, so their shots are worth taking;
- Roy shoots only 33.8%, but his saving grace is that he hits many at very dramatic moments;
- Bayless (31.2%) and Miller (21.3%) hurt the team, statistically, by even attempting shots from the arc;
- The Blazers as a team average 35.6%; and finally,
- The trade which landed the marvelous Marcus Camby came at quite a cost: Travis (38.7%) and Steve Blake (37.7%) were quality bombers. So good, in fact, that should the team ever toy with acquiring such a specialist, neither would be a bad pick-up in the mold of James Jones (42.2% with Miami). And guess whose become quite the 3-point assassin? Channing Frye at 43.8% with the Suns!

3-pointers aid in balancing an offense, and when combined with a solid low-post game, shooters at both ends of the spectrum have an easier time of it. Right now LaMarcus Aldridge and Andre Miller are our consistent low post threats. They're good alright. But guess who was/is great? Greg Oden at 60.5%! What a beast. And he's all ours.

Last night in Denver Miller struggled as the designated technical free throw shooter. He's averaging 82.1% and is normally ice water from the line. Coach Nate, needing every point against the Nuggets, opted for Roy (78.5%) over Miller in the late going. Roy is a proven big-game player. But standing just beyond the 3-point line, watching both Miller & Roy shoot technical fouls was Nicolas Batum. The young kid from France shoots merely 90.2% from the line.

Notice who leads in both categories discussed thus far?

A 2-blocks-per-game (BPG) average is not easily achieved. Camby is right on that figure. Under Camby's tutelage Oden could learn that playing both on and off the ball selectively might garner him more BPG than going after everything in sight (an approach which thus far has only sent him to the bench on a regular basis). Also, Camby's fingertip tip-outs to the perimeter of rebounds he can't secure by himself has really been an addition to this teams' offensive rebounding, and his teammates are following suit.

Dante Cunningham, a rookie mid-range scorer, is averaging 49.5% from the field. Pretty darn dependable. He, too, will be a good one.

Bayless, in addition to losing his confidence, has forgotten his off-season lesson to add more arc to his shot. And, sadly, his two year apprenticeship at point guard has netted only one result: he ain't never gonna be an NBA point guard. To the rest of the league he's predictable (as opposed to Roy, who, while also predictable, is often unstoppable) and he hasn't demonstrated improvement in ANY facet of the game. And, believe me, I like this kid, but he's easily expendable.

With Kevin Pritchard admitting that, yes, he may be guilty of wanting to keep and nurture some of the players on his roster longer than he should, he may now be more willing to make trades of quality players for the greater good (i.e., Blake and Outlaw for Camby). As I see it from the perspective of early April 2010, the Blazers of next season could survive and thrive without Bayless, Howard (with a tip of the hat for his contribution this year), and Webster. Here's a very do-able and stunning roster rotation for next year: center (Oden/Pryzbilla/Camby), power forward (Aldridge/Camby/Cunningham), small forward (Batum/Roy/Fernandez), shooting guard (Roy/Fernandez) and point guard (Miller/.... /Roy). That's a total of 10 players, including a point guard to be named later. The remaining 5 roster spots can be filled with rookies (including Patty Mills, and don't forget our European draft picks) and 1 or 2 designated specialists, i.e. a 3-point bomber and a down low banger (Pendergrass). To give Cunningham a fair shake, he may want to add small forward skills to his quiver and see (at non-crucial times) just how he'd fair out there. Rudy might also be selectively used at point guard so as to not overly-tax Roy at 3 positions.

I'd rotate next year's center position this way - Camby starts (in the early season), with Oden backing him up. If Joel recovers well from his injuries, Camby can slide over and back-up LaMarcus. As Oden gets confidence in his legs back and jettisons the barnacles off of his game, he can re-assume the starting position. There may be the occasion when we'd use a front line of Oden, Camby and LaMarcus. At a minimum, I like our rebounding chances for short periods with that group.

So next year could be the gel year. With a minimum of injuries, a continuance of low-ego's, and a deft trade for a back-up point guard (Calderone?), I like what I see.

Monday, March 1, 2010

Color Me Giddy

OK, OK. I'm over-reacting to Batum's breakout game, I know. But I think that if Nate can have a set starting 5 of Brandon, Andre, LaMarcus, Nic, & Camby; and get one player each game from the reserves to have a good game (15 points?), then this team can climb in the standings in the 20 games left in the season. Starting tonight in Memphis.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

One More Shoe to Drop

Brother! Talk about emotional ups and downs. One minute I'm led to believe that Greg Oden is the next prospective great big man in a decade, and then I marvel at how, after 10 years of playing organized basketball, he still doesn't know how to move his feet correctly in the paint (dare I say it? He can look downright awkward). Then after a summer of Channing Frye scorching the rims around town, preceded by perhaps his best 2 weeks in pro ball at the end of last season, I'm ready to consider him a long-term keeper. But then he goes and looks totally, utterly, hopelessly & cluelessly flummoxed in Boston. I grant you that even a less rattle-able Rudy F. looked shaky in Beantown, too. The Boston game was the ultimate cold shower...liquid hydrogen, even. Brrrrrrrrrrr. But then, they pulled it together enough to beat Toronto 18 hours later. See what I mean? Go figure.

May they all have the ice water veins of The Kid, Nicolas Batum. What a breath of fresh air. No talk of being a project. No talk of delayed productivity while he adapts to American Pro-B-ball. Watching The Kid gracefully and fluidly play the small forward position correctly at age 19 can make you weep. Could it really be all that easy? I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear him say (think of the voice of Maurice Chavalier here), "My Cherie Amor, what eez so diffeecult about baskeetball? You know what must bee done and you do it." Followed by a guttural response from the pit of a downtown construction project, "Yeah, well, no duh! (Belch)."

So, we can say we don't really know this team yet (some specific players, yes, but not the team as a single organism). And we won't until a final piece begins to define itself - Martell Webster. Where and how will he fit in? How much has he changed/evolved since last year? Will he tend energetically to all aspects of the position? Or just shoot? My bet? Channing loses minutes, Travis returns to power forward back-up and The Kid backs up Martell...for now.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Surprise, Surprise

I'm tempted to write this piece tomorrow, because if the Blazers beat the New Orleans Hornets tonight then the point of this missive will be even more impactful in the morning. But I'm too giddy right now, about my sudden realization of what the Blazers have accomplished so far, to wait 15 more hours.

In September, as the season approached, prognosticators, both professional and neophyte, projected the Blazers as the likely holder of the 8th spot in the 2009 NBA Western Conference Playoffs. They felt that the season was just long enough to allow the team to recover from the horrendous early schedule the league had thrown at them. "Making the playoffs" - yes, that would the fair barometer on how to assess this team's success this year.

But look what the stats show us this morning. The Blazers, tough early schedule be damned, are tied for the 4th spot in the Conference, and tonight's opponent, holder of the 3rd spot, could be tumbled.

Win or lose tonight, the Blazers have achieved this unexpected (by some) ranking through three surprising developments. The foreigners have taught this teachable team the value and splendor of making passes they previously hadn't stretched to do; Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez have demonstrated to one and all (but mostly to Travis Outlaw, LaMarcus Aldridge and Channing Frye) the value of extra effort - for causing turnovers, blocking shots, making steals, and all other manner of beneficial hustle plays; and Joel Przybilla has been playing out of his mind.

The current lesson, which is of the "two-steps-forward-one-step-back" variety, is to consistently apply the newly acquired skills each and every night. It is this lesson that lies between being a good team and being an elite team.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Honing In...

Ok, so we're 7 games into the 2008-09 NBA season and what have we learned about this edition of the Trail Blazers?

Firstly, even though Steve Blake is tough, intelligent and a steady shooter, and Sergio can speed the game up and thread the needle with a pass, we now realize that a Blazers' championship team will not have either one as its starting point guard. (Bayless might, but he'd require significant improvement in rapidly "reading the floor", in anticipating players' on-court movement, and in consistently hitting the 18'-23' shot…imagine a combination of Blake's shooting and judgment, and Sergio's passing ability). And a championship point guard also needs enough quickness to defend championship-contending point guards. Sergio nor Blake has that. Bayless has the speed already, but do we have time to wait for the rest of the above to be developed in Bayless? No.

So, what's changed? Why have we suddenly lost the luxury of waiting for players to develop over time? Simple answer - Nicolas Batum. Batum, in his rapid ascension to importance in the team's rotation at only 19 years of age, has fully demonstrated that "when you've got it, you've got it". He's a natural – not only physically, but he's got the goods mentally as well. The kid is basically unflappable. And he believes in himself. He is not a 'project'. His learning curve is a year or less. And Batum has an advantage over Bayless in that their respective positions require different degrees of focal importance. Point guards are too 'front-and-center' and thus, it's too risky to gamble on a developmental player. Not under the intense scrutiny of prime-time NBA play.

We realize for sure that, in his 5th year, Travis Outlaw is a complete stud. Travis arrived in Portland when the team wasn't in contention for anything and, therefore, they had the time to develop him. Somebody saw something in this young man and was willing to cultivate it and mine it. Never say never, but Travis may become one of the "four untouchables" on this team. At a recent home game, he snared, gobbled, and devoured 13 rebounds off the bench. He must scare opponents to death. When he rises to pinnacle height to release his shot, defenders are left to only wave at the tie-strings on his shorts. And he's blocking shots and tipping passes, too. So, secondly, we now know that Travis can do it. And as far as being a starter, there are tons of NBA starters who don't play 40 minutes a game, as Travis did against the Magic.

Thirdly, this team must have a worrisome behemoth in the middle. The Blazers can't fake it. They've been muscled by Amare Stoudemire, Al Jefferson and Dwight Howard…at will. Joel's no cupcake, but he just doesn't have the mass to slow those guys down without fouling. And if "Mr. Bulk-o-Rama Man", who we need so much, could score 10+ points down low and pass out to shooters quickly when double-teamed, THEN we'd have the necessary blend of team skills to advance.

Joel is a necessary compliment to Channing Frye. Channing isn't soft, he's just doesn't defend well. With a 2nd-unit frontline of Travis, Joel & Channing, there's enough banging from T & J to cover for Channing. And don't forget - Fernandez boards!

Fourthly, Rudy is the real deal. We hope he's also the Energizer Bunny, because he go-go-goes all out, all the time. No wonder Spain didn't start him. He'd be out of juice by halftime. Orlando Magic's TV announcers mentioned him as a legitimate candidate for R.O.Y.

Lastly, we also now know what the questions are:
1) Can Greg Oden stay healthy for 80% of the season?
2) Can G.O. command double teams and pass out of them quickly?
3) Will Travis give us his best effort every game?
4) Will Rudy pace himself enough to maximize his contribution?
5) Will the Blazers package some picks, talent & their cap space to acquire a fleet-afoot, good-decision-making, deadly shooting point guard?

Go Blazers.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Huh?

Reader Ken Chaitin of Portland has it right. It’s not that the Blazers lost one game. It’s not that they lost on national TV. And it’s not even that Greg Oden suffered a 2-4 week tweak of his foot. No, no, and no. It’s because the threatening-new-force-in-the-Western-Conference – the same ones who are the Darlings of the Basketball’s Future – flat out never @#$%^& showed up!

I know Mr. Chaitin. When he compromises something near and dear to him, the entity for whom he made said sacrifice should darn well take heed and take things seriously. Just as my fiancĂ©, who hates cats and who is allergic to cats, looked past her self and gave me a kitten for my birthday, Ken C. (the dedicated non-smoker) went way out of his comfort zone to honor and celebrate the ‘new’ Blazers by going to Claudia’s pub on Hawthorne in SE Portland, filled with smoke as it was, to watch the game on TV and to give of himself for the “cause”. Brave and noble man.

Ken and I, and maybe even you, should be learning by now that what athletes ‘say’ rarely has anything to do with what they will actually demonstrate in battle. Brandon Roy, ballyhooed spokesperson for the players, said recently that, “we’re ready” to play in a counting game. Phooey to that! Heck, the Cleveland Cavaliers were obviously ready to take it to the Champs in Boston. Great game. Great effort by all. Are the Lakers not impressive enough – either by hype or from our deep-seated grrrrrr – to take them seriously? When the Lakers’ coach, Phil Jackson, implored his team to scratch for every win in order to gain home court advantage throughout the playoffs, did he not speak for every professional athlete’s obligation to their fans? What possible excuse is there to not show up? I’m open to hearing any well-reasoned explanations.

In 1992, when the Blazers were playing the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals in Las Vegas (because the game could not safely be played in Los Angeles because of the dangerous ‘Rodney King’ riots), Magic Johnson was the color analyst for the great Dick Enberg’s play-by-play. Magic says to Dick something like (I have the actual quote on video tape), “People around the NBA aren’t aware of this, but there is a real strong rivalry between the Lakers and Portland – it goes both ways and its been going on for a long time.” What greater authority does one need to hear it from? Hmmm? Not Canzano or that Puff in the Morning. It’s real. It’s palpable, and those @#$%^& Blazers don’t even try? ‘Splain it to me.