August is when I suffer the most. The NBA season is still 3 months away and my Ducks don't start until September. What to do? Well, August also coincides with my full recovery from the Blazers season just passed. The mourning is over. Everything black has been put away. It's a new dawn, and I'm reborn. Still, I must survive August. So, that's when I haul out DVD's of each Blazers win last season, and every day or so, I watch a win.
Since most prognosticators base their predictions on leftover feelings and impressions, and on how they value the team's off-season maneuvers, you get a very similar forecast from each of them. Ever notice how rarely their predictions come to pass?
Well, this fortune-teller adds an additional vapor to the mist and incense the others depend on: reviewing 50 actual games (instead of depending upon receding memories). Some undeniable facts are: 1) Greg Oden really was beginning to be a beast on both ends of the floor and he was beginning to minimize his fouling; 2) LaMarcus will be just fine being LaMarcus...forget trying to get him to be Maurice Lucas, Buck Williams or Brian Grant - LA's game will elevate just by being in the vicinity of consistent defensive play from Greg, Camby and Pryz (yes, Joel will be just fine by training camp); and 3) the Blazers were (pre-major injuries) the league leading defensive team. But you say, "What about the offense?" Well, good defense, blocked shots, steals and forced turnovers lead to more possessions than the other team gets, and if you can get your overall FG% to 48%, you'll be more than just fine.
So, my optimism is based on the following hunches:
- everyone comes to camp healthy and ready;
- Nicolas Batum makes another solid leap (doesn't have to be a quantum one) from last year;
- Camby gets the majority of the back-up PF minutes;
- Joel adjusts positively to reduced minutes;
- the team realizes that Wesley Matthews shoots 3's at 52%(!!!!) from one of the corners;
- Dante continues to stretch his effective shooting range out farther (he'll see some time at SF);
- the offense gets revamped so that Brandon doesn't have to dribble the clock away;
- the team is very long; plus, they've added aggression in the form of Matthews, Johnson and Williams;
- their top pick, Luke Babbitt, will become one of the league's best designated shooters someday - perhaps by the playoffs (i.e., zero defense but DEADLY). He'll be used in spot minutes to pound coffin nails; and
- they will mesh as a team.
Prediction: Division Winner and Western Conference Finalist
It's bold, I know. Reckless? Perhaps. But I feel that last season's ER revolving door was a one-time nightmare which won't be repeated by this team this year. If they meld as a team, play to their strengths and think BIG, they can do it.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Friday, April 2, 2010
Stats Dont Lie
This goes out to my other reader. Here are some statistics about our Blazers and some observations thereof:
Utilizing 3-point shooting as a staple in a team's arsenal is only beneficial (vs. 2-point shooting) if the team hits better than 33% of the time. Given that, let's peruse some stats:
- Batum, clearly the Blazers' best, is the only one shooting better than 40% (43.1%). Statistically, Nic is a NBA Top Ten 3-point shooter and he's only going to get better;
- Rudy & Martell hit at about a 37% clip, so their shots are worth taking;
- Roy shoots only 33.8%, but his saving grace is that he hits many at very dramatic moments;
- Bayless (31.2%) and Miller (21.3%) hurt the team, statistically, by even attempting shots from the arc;
- The Blazers as a team average 35.6%; and finally,
- The trade which landed the marvelous Marcus Camby came at quite a cost: Travis (38.7%) and Steve Blake (37.7%) were quality bombers. So good, in fact, that should the team ever toy with acquiring such a specialist, neither would be a bad pick-up in the mold of James Jones (42.2% with Miami). And guess whose become quite the 3-point assassin? Channing Frye at 43.8% with the Suns!
3-pointers aid in balancing an offense, and when combined with a solid low-post game, shooters at both ends of the spectrum have an easier time of it. Right now LaMarcus Aldridge and Andre Miller are our consistent low post threats. They're good alright. But guess who was/is great? Greg Oden at 60.5%! What a beast. And he's all ours.
Last night in Denver Miller struggled as the designated technical free throw shooter. He's averaging 82.1% and is normally ice water from the line. Coach Nate, needing every point against the Nuggets, opted for Roy (78.5%) over Miller in the late going. Roy is a proven big-game player. But standing just beyond the 3-point line, watching both Miller & Roy shoot technical fouls was Nicolas Batum. The young kid from France shoots merely 90.2% from the line.
Notice who leads in both categories discussed thus far?
A 2-blocks-per-game (BPG) average is not easily achieved. Camby is right on that figure. Under Camby's tutelage Oden could learn that playing both on and off the ball selectively might garner him more BPG than going after everything in sight (an approach which thus far has only sent him to the bench on a regular basis). Also, Camby's fingertip tip-outs to the perimeter of rebounds he can't secure by himself has really been an addition to this teams' offensive rebounding, and his teammates are following suit.
Dante Cunningham, a rookie mid-range scorer, is averaging 49.5% from the field. Pretty darn dependable. He, too, will be a good one.
Bayless, in addition to losing his confidence, has forgotten his off-season lesson to add more arc to his shot. And, sadly, his two year apprenticeship at point guard has netted only one result: he ain't never gonna be an NBA point guard. To the rest of the league he's predictable (as opposed to Roy, who, while also predictable, is often unstoppable) and he hasn't demonstrated improvement in ANY facet of the game. And, believe me, I like this kid, but he's easily expendable.
With Kevin Pritchard admitting that, yes, he may be guilty of wanting to keep and nurture some of the players on his roster longer than he should, he may now be more willing to make trades of quality players for the greater good (i.e., Blake and Outlaw for Camby). As I see it from the perspective of early April 2010, the Blazers of next season could survive and thrive without Bayless, Howard (with a tip of the hat for his contribution this year), and Webster. Here's a very do-able and stunning roster rotation for next year: center (Oden/Pryzbilla/Camby), power forward (Aldridge/Camby/Cunningham), small forward (Batum/Roy/Fernandez), shooting guard (Roy/Fernandez) and point guard (Miller/.... /Roy). That's a total of 10 players, including a point guard to be named later. The remaining 5 roster spots can be filled with rookies (including Patty Mills, and don't forget our European draft picks) and 1 or 2 designated specialists, i.e. a 3-point bomber and a down low banger (Pendergrass). To give Cunningham a fair shake, he may want to add small forward skills to his quiver and see (at non-crucial times) just how he'd fair out there. Rudy might also be selectively used at point guard so as to not overly-tax Roy at 3 positions.
I'd rotate next year's center position this way - Camby starts (in the early season), with Oden backing him up. If Joel recovers well from his injuries, Camby can slide over and back-up LaMarcus. As Oden gets confidence in his legs back and jettisons the barnacles off of his game, he can re-assume the starting position. There may be the occasion when we'd use a front line of Oden, Camby and LaMarcus. At a minimum, I like our rebounding chances for short periods with that group.
So next year could be the gel year. With a minimum of injuries, a continuance of low-ego's, and a deft trade for a back-up point guard (Calderone?), I like what I see.
Utilizing 3-point shooting as a staple in a team's arsenal is only beneficial (vs. 2-point shooting) if the team hits better than 33% of the time. Given that, let's peruse some stats:
- Batum, clearly the Blazers' best, is the only one shooting better than 40% (43.1%). Statistically, Nic is a NBA Top Ten 3-point shooter and he's only going to get better;
- Rudy & Martell hit at about a 37% clip, so their shots are worth taking;
- Roy shoots only 33.8%, but his saving grace is that he hits many at very dramatic moments;
- Bayless (31.2%) and Miller (21.3%) hurt the team, statistically, by even attempting shots from the arc;
- The Blazers as a team average 35.6%; and finally,
- The trade which landed the marvelous Marcus Camby came at quite a cost: Travis (38.7%) and Steve Blake (37.7%) were quality bombers. So good, in fact, that should the team ever toy with acquiring such a specialist, neither would be a bad pick-up in the mold of James Jones (42.2% with Miami). And guess whose become quite the 3-point assassin? Channing Frye at 43.8% with the Suns!
3-pointers aid in balancing an offense, and when combined with a solid low-post game, shooters at both ends of the spectrum have an easier time of it. Right now LaMarcus Aldridge and Andre Miller are our consistent low post threats. They're good alright. But guess who was/is great? Greg Oden at 60.5%! What a beast. And he's all ours.
Last night in Denver Miller struggled as the designated technical free throw shooter. He's averaging 82.1% and is normally ice water from the line. Coach Nate, needing every point against the Nuggets, opted for Roy (78.5%) over Miller in the late going. Roy is a proven big-game player. But standing just beyond the 3-point line, watching both Miller & Roy shoot technical fouls was Nicolas Batum. The young kid from France shoots merely 90.2% from the line.
Notice who leads in both categories discussed thus far?
A 2-blocks-per-game (BPG) average is not easily achieved. Camby is right on that figure. Under Camby's tutelage Oden could learn that playing both on and off the ball selectively might garner him more BPG than going after everything in sight (an approach which thus far has only sent him to the bench on a regular basis). Also, Camby's fingertip tip-outs to the perimeter of rebounds he can't secure by himself has really been an addition to this teams' offensive rebounding, and his teammates are following suit.
Dante Cunningham, a rookie mid-range scorer, is averaging 49.5% from the field. Pretty darn dependable. He, too, will be a good one.
Bayless, in addition to losing his confidence, has forgotten his off-season lesson to add more arc to his shot. And, sadly, his two year apprenticeship at point guard has netted only one result: he ain't never gonna be an NBA point guard. To the rest of the league he's predictable (as opposed to Roy, who, while also predictable, is often unstoppable) and he hasn't demonstrated improvement in ANY facet of the game. And, believe me, I like this kid, but he's easily expendable.
With Kevin Pritchard admitting that, yes, he may be guilty of wanting to keep and nurture some of the players on his roster longer than he should, he may now be more willing to make trades of quality players for the greater good (i.e., Blake and Outlaw for Camby). As I see it from the perspective of early April 2010, the Blazers of next season could survive and thrive without Bayless, Howard (with a tip of the hat for his contribution this year), and Webster. Here's a very do-able and stunning roster rotation for next year: center (Oden/Pryzbilla/Camby), power forward (Aldridge/Camby/Cunningham), small forward (Batum/Roy/Fernandez), shooting guard (Roy/Fernandez) and point guard (Miller/.... /Roy). That's a total of 10 players, including a point guard to be named later. The remaining 5 roster spots can be filled with rookies (including Patty Mills, and don't forget our European draft picks) and 1 or 2 designated specialists, i.e. a 3-point bomber and a down low banger (Pendergrass). To give Cunningham a fair shake, he may want to add small forward skills to his quiver and see (at non-crucial times) just how he'd fair out there. Rudy might also be selectively used at point guard so as to not overly-tax Roy at 3 positions.
I'd rotate next year's center position this way - Camby starts (in the early season), with Oden backing him up. If Joel recovers well from his injuries, Camby can slide over and back-up LaMarcus. As Oden gets confidence in his legs back and jettisons the barnacles off of his game, he can re-assume the starting position. There may be the occasion when we'd use a front line of Oden, Camby and LaMarcus. At a minimum, I like our rebounding chances for short periods with that group.
So next year could be the gel year. With a minimum of injuries, a continuance of low-ego's, and a deft trade for a back-up point guard (Calderone?), I like what I see.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Color Me Giddy
OK, OK. I'm over-reacting to Batum's breakout game, I know. But I think that if Nate can have a set starting 5 of Brandon, Andre, LaMarcus, Nic, & Camby; and get one player each game from the reserves to have a good game (15 points?), then this team can climb in the standings in the 20 games left in the season. Starting tonight in Memphis.
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