August is when I suffer the most. The NBA season is still 3 months away and my Ducks don't start until September. What to do? Well, August also coincides with my full recovery from the Blazers season just passed. The mourning is over. Everything black has been put away. It's a new dawn, and I'm reborn. Still, I must survive August. So, that's when I haul out DVD's of each Blazers win last season, and every day or so, I watch a win.
Since most prognosticators base their predictions on leftover feelings and impressions, and on how they value the team's off-season maneuvers, you get a very similar forecast from each of them. Ever notice how rarely their predictions come to pass?
Well, this fortune-teller adds an additional vapor to the mist and incense the others depend on: reviewing 50 actual games (instead of depending upon receding memories). Some undeniable facts are: 1) Greg Oden really was beginning to be a beast on both ends of the floor and he was beginning to minimize his fouling; 2) LaMarcus will be just fine being LaMarcus...forget trying to get him to be Maurice Lucas, Buck Williams or Brian Grant - LA's game will elevate just by being in the vicinity of consistent defensive play from Greg, Camby and Pryz (yes, Joel will be just fine by training camp); and 3) the Blazers were (pre-major injuries) the league leading defensive team. But you say, "What about the offense?" Well, good defense, blocked shots, steals and forced turnovers lead to more possessions than the other team gets, and if you can get your overall FG% to 48%, you'll be more than just fine.
So, my optimism is based on the following hunches:
- everyone comes to camp healthy and ready;
- Nicolas Batum makes another solid leap (doesn't have to be a quantum one) from last year;
- Camby gets the majority of the back-up PF minutes;
- Joel adjusts positively to reduced minutes;
- the team realizes that Wesley Matthews shoots 3's at 52%(!!!!) from one of the corners;
- Dante continues to stretch his effective shooting range out farther (he'll see some time at SF);
- the offense gets revamped so that Brandon doesn't have to dribble the clock away;
- the team is very long; plus, they've added aggression in the form of Matthews, Johnson and Williams;
- their top pick, Luke Babbitt, will become one of the league's best designated shooters someday - perhaps by the playoffs (i.e., zero defense but DEADLY). He'll be used in spot minutes to pound coffin nails; and
- they will mesh as a team.
Prediction: Division Winner and Western Conference Finalist
It's bold, I know. Reckless? Perhaps. But I feel that last season's ER revolving door was a one-time nightmare which won't be repeated by this team this year. If they meld as a team, play to their strengths and think BIG, they can do it.
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