Honing In...

Ok, so we're 7 games into the 2008-09 NBA season and what have we learned about this edition of the Trail Blazers?

Firstly, even though Steve Blake is tough, intelligent and a steady shooter, and Sergio can speed the game up and thread the needle with a pass, we now realize that a Blazers' championship team will not have either one as its starting point guard. (Bayless might, but he'd require significant improvement in rapidly "reading the floor", in anticipating players' on-court movement, and in consistently hitting the 18'-23' shot…imagine a combination of Blake's shooting and judgment, and Sergio's passing ability). And a championship point guard also needs enough quickness to defend championship-contending point guards. Sergio nor Blake has that. Bayless has the speed already, but do we have time to wait for the rest of the above to be developed in Bayless? No.

So, what's changed? Why have we suddenly lost the luxury of waiting for players to develop over time? Simple answer - Nicolas Batum. Batum, in his rapid ascension to importance in the team's rotation at only 19 years of age, has fully demonstrated that "when you've got it, you've got it". He's a natural – not only physically, but he's got the goods mentally as well. The kid is basically unflappable. And he believes in himself. He is not a 'project'. His learning curve is a year or less. And Batum has an advantage over Bayless in that their respective positions require different degrees of focal importance. Point guards are too 'front-and-center' and thus, it's too risky to gamble on a developmental player. Not under the intense scrutiny of prime-time NBA play.

We realize for sure that, in his 5th year, Travis Outlaw is a complete stud. Travis arrived in Portland when the team wasn't in contention for anything and, therefore, they had the time to develop him. Somebody saw something in this young man and was willing to cultivate it and mine it. Never say never, but Travis may become one of the "four untouchables" on this team. At a recent home game, he snared, gobbled, and devoured 13 rebounds off the bench. He must scare opponents to death. When he rises to pinnacle height to release his shot, defenders are left to only wave at the tie-strings on his shorts. And he's blocking shots and tipping passes, too. So, secondly, we now know that Travis can do it. And as far as being a starter, there are tons of NBA starters who don't play 40 minutes a game, as Travis did against the Magic.

Thirdly, this team must have a worrisome behemoth in the middle. The Blazers can't fake it. They've been muscled by Amare Stoudemire, Al Jefferson and Dwight Howard…at will. Joel's no cupcake, but he just doesn't have the mass to slow those guys down without fouling. And if "Mr. Bulk-o-Rama Man", who we need so much, could score 10+ points down low and pass out to shooters quickly when double-teamed, THEN we'd have the necessary blend of team skills to advance.

Joel is a necessary compliment to Channing Frye. Channing isn't soft, he's just doesn't defend well. With a 2nd-unit frontline of Travis, Joel & Channing, there's enough banging from T & J to cover for Channing. And don't forget - Fernandez boards!

Fourthly, Rudy is the real deal. We hope he's also the Energizer Bunny, because he go-go-goes all out, all the time. No wonder Spain didn't start him. He'd be out of juice by halftime. Orlando Magic's TV announcers mentioned him as a legitimate candidate for R.O.Y.

Lastly, we also now know what the questions are:
1) Can Greg Oden stay healthy for 80% of the season?
2) Can G.O. command double teams and pass out of them quickly?
3) Will Travis give us his best effort every game?
4) Will Rudy pace himself enough to maximize his contribution?
5) Will the Blazers package some picks, talent & their cap space to acquire a fleet-afoot, good-decision-making, deadly shooting point guard?

Go Blazers.