This goes out to my other reader. Here are some statistics about our Blazers and some observations thereof:
Utilizing 3-point shooting as a staple in a team's arsenal is only beneficial (vs. 2-point shooting) if the team hits better than 33% of the time. Given that, let's peruse some stats:
- Batum, clearly the Blazers' best, is the only one shooting better than 40% (43.1%). Statistically, Nic is a NBA Top Ten 3-point shooter and he's only going to get better;
- Rudy & Martell hit at about a 37% clip, so their shots are worth taking;
- Roy shoots only 33.8%, but his saving grace is that he hits many at very dramatic moments;
- Bayless (31.2%) and Miller (21.3%) hurt the team, statistically, by even attempting shots from the arc;
- The Blazers as a team average 35.6%; and finally,
- The trade which landed the marvelous Marcus Camby came at quite a cost: Travis (38.7%) and Steve Blake (37.7%) were quality bombers. So good, in fact, that should the team ever toy with acquiring such a specialist, neither would be a bad pick-up in the mold of James Jones (42.2% with Miami). And guess whose become quite the 3-point assassin? Channing Frye at 43.8% with the Suns!
3-pointers aid in balancing an offense, and when combined with a solid low-post game, shooters at both ends of the spectrum have an easier time of it. Right now LaMarcus Aldridge and Andre Miller are our consistent low post threats. They're good alright. But guess who was/is great? Greg Oden at 60.5%! What a beast. And he's all ours.
Last night in Denver Miller struggled as the designated technical free throw shooter. He's averaging 82.1% and is normally ice water from the line. Coach Nate, needing every point against the Nuggets, opted for Roy (78.5%) over Miller in the late going. Roy is a proven big-game player. But standing just beyond the 3-point line, watching both Miller & Roy shoot technical fouls was Nicolas Batum. The young kid from France shoots merely 90.2% from the line.
Notice who leads in both categories discussed thus far?
A 2-blocks-per-game (BPG) average is not easily achieved. Camby is right on that figure. Under Camby's tutelage Oden could learn that playing both on and off the ball selectively might garner him more BPG than going after everything in sight (an approach which thus far has only sent him to the bench on a regular basis). Also, Camby's fingertip tip-outs to the perimeter of rebounds he can't secure by himself has really been an addition to this teams' offensive rebounding, and his teammates are following suit.
Dante Cunningham, a rookie mid-range scorer, is averaging 49.5% from the field. Pretty darn dependable. He, too, will be a good one.
Bayless, in addition to losing his confidence, has forgotten his off-season lesson to add more arc to his shot. And, sadly, his two year apprenticeship at point guard has netted only one result: he ain't never gonna be an NBA point guard. To the rest of the league he's predictable (as opposed to Roy, who, while also predictable, is often unstoppable) and he hasn't demonstrated improvement in ANY facet of the game. And, believe me, I like this kid, but he's easily expendable.
With Kevin Pritchard admitting that, yes, he may be guilty of wanting to keep and nurture some of the players on his roster longer than he should, he may now be more willing to make trades of quality players for the greater good (i.e., Blake and Outlaw for Camby). As I see it from the perspective of early April 2010, the Blazers of next season could survive and thrive without Bayless, Howard (with a tip of the hat for his contribution this year), and Webster. Here's a very do-able and stunning roster rotation for next year: center (Oden/Pryzbilla/Camby), power forward (Aldridge/Camby/Cunningham), small forward (Batum/Roy/Fernandez), shooting guard (Roy/Fernandez) and point guard (Miller/.... /Roy). That's a total of 10 players, including a point guard to be named later. The remaining 5 roster spots can be filled with rookies (including Patty Mills, and don't forget our European draft picks) and 1 or 2 designated specialists, i.e. a 3-point bomber and a down low banger (Pendergrass). To give Cunningham a fair shake, he may want to add small forward skills to his quiver and see (at non-crucial times) just how he'd fair out there. Rudy might also be selectively used at point guard so as to not overly-tax Roy at 3 positions.
I'd rotate next year's center position this way - Camby starts (in the early season), with Oden backing him up. If Joel recovers well from his injuries, Camby can slide over and back-up LaMarcus. As Oden gets confidence in his legs back and jettisons the barnacles off of his game, he can re-assume the starting position. There may be the occasion when we'd use a front line of Oden, Camby and LaMarcus. At a minimum, I like our rebounding chances for short periods with that group.
So next year could be the gel year. With a minimum of injuries, a continuance of low-ego's, and a deft trade for a back-up point guard (Calderone?), I like what I see.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Monday, March 1, 2010
Color Me Giddy
OK, OK. I'm over-reacting to Batum's breakout game, I know. But I think that if Nate can have a set starting 5 of Brandon, Andre, LaMarcus, Nic, & Camby; and get one player each game from the reserves to have a good game (15 points?), then this team can climb in the standings in the 20 games left in the season. Starting tonight in Memphis.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
One More Shoe to Drop
Brother! Talk about emotional ups and downs. One minute I'm led to believe that Greg Oden is the next prospective great big man in a decade, and then I marvel at how, after 10 years of playing organized basketball, he still doesn't know how to move his feet correctly in the paint (dare I say it? He can look downright awkward). Then after a summer of Channing Frye scorching the rims around town, preceded by perhaps his best 2 weeks in pro ball at the end of last season, I'm ready to consider him a long-term keeper. But then he goes and looks totally, utterly, hopelessly & cluelessly flummoxed in Boston. I grant you that even a less rattle-able Rudy F. looked shaky in Beantown, too. The Boston game was the ultimate cold shower...liquid hydrogen, even. Brrrrrrrrrrr. But then, they pulled it together enough to beat Toronto 18 hours later. See what I mean? Go figure.
May they all have the ice water veins of The Kid, Nicolas Batum. What a breath of fresh air. No talk of being a project. No talk of delayed productivity while he adapts to American Pro-B-ball. Watching The Kid gracefully and fluidly play the small forward position correctly at age 19 can make you weep. Could it really be all that easy? I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear him say (think of the voice of Maurice Chavalier here), "My Cherie Amor, what eez so diffeecult about baskeetball? You know what must bee done and you do it." Followed by a guttural response from the pit of a downtown construction project, "Yeah, well, no duh! (Belch)."
So, we can say we don't really know this team yet (some specific players, yes, but not the team as a single organism). And we won't until a final piece begins to define itself - Martell Webster. Where and how will he fit in? How much has he changed/evolved since last year? Will he tend energetically to all aspects of the position? Or just shoot? My bet? Channing loses minutes, Travis returns to power forward back-up and The Kid backs up Martell...for now.
May they all have the ice water veins of The Kid, Nicolas Batum. What a breath of fresh air. No talk of being a project. No talk of delayed productivity while he adapts to American Pro-B-ball. Watching The Kid gracefully and fluidly play the small forward position correctly at age 19 can make you weep. Could it really be all that easy? I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear him say (think of the voice of Maurice Chavalier here), "My Cherie Amor, what eez so diffeecult about baskeetball? You know what must bee done and you do it." Followed by a guttural response from the pit of a downtown construction project, "Yeah, well, no duh! (Belch)."
So, we can say we don't really know this team yet (some specific players, yes, but not the team as a single organism). And we won't until a final piece begins to define itself - Martell Webster. Where and how will he fit in? How much has he changed/evolved since last year? Will he tend energetically to all aspects of the position? Or just shoot? My bet? Channing loses minutes, Travis returns to power forward back-up and The Kid backs up Martell...for now.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Surprise, Surprise
I'm tempted to write this piece tomorrow, because if the Blazers beat the New Orleans Hornets tonight then the point of this missive will be even more impactful in the morning. But I'm too giddy right now, about my sudden realization of what the Blazers have accomplished so far, to wait 15 more hours.
In September, as the season approached, prognosticators, both professional and neophyte, projected the Blazers as the likely holder of the 8th spot in the 2009 NBA Western Conference Playoffs. They felt that the season was just long enough to allow the team to recover from the horrendous early schedule the league had thrown at them. "Making the playoffs" - yes, that would the fair barometer on how to assess this team's success this year.
But look what the stats show us this morning. The Blazers, tough early schedule be damned, are tied for the 4th spot in the Conference, and tonight's opponent, holder of the 3rd spot, could be tumbled.
Win or lose tonight, the Blazers have achieved this unexpected (by some) ranking through three surprising developments. The foreigners have taught this teachable team the value and splendor of making passes they previously hadn't stretched to do; Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez have demonstrated to one and all (but mostly to Travis Outlaw, LaMarcus Aldridge and Channing Frye) the value of extra effort - for causing turnovers, blocking shots, making steals, and all other manner of beneficial hustle plays; and Joel Przybilla has been playing out of his mind.
The current lesson, which is of the "two-steps-forward-one-step-back" variety, is to consistently apply the newly acquired skills each and every night. It is this lesson that lies between being a good team and being an elite team.
In September, as the season approached, prognosticators, both professional and neophyte, projected the Blazers as the likely holder of the 8th spot in the 2009 NBA Western Conference Playoffs. They felt that the season was just long enough to allow the team to recover from the horrendous early schedule the league had thrown at them. "Making the playoffs" - yes, that would the fair barometer on how to assess this team's success this year.
But look what the stats show us this morning. The Blazers, tough early schedule be damned, are tied for the 4th spot in the Conference, and tonight's opponent, holder of the 3rd spot, could be tumbled.
Win or lose tonight, the Blazers have achieved this unexpected (by some) ranking through three surprising developments. The foreigners have taught this teachable team the value and splendor of making passes they previously hadn't stretched to do; Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez have demonstrated to one and all (but mostly to Travis Outlaw, LaMarcus Aldridge and Channing Frye) the value of extra effort - for causing turnovers, blocking shots, making steals, and all other manner of beneficial hustle plays; and Joel Przybilla has been playing out of his mind.
The current lesson, which is of the "two-steps-forward-one-step-back" variety, is to consistently apply the newly acquired skills each and every night. It is this lesson that lies between being a good team and being an elite team.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Honing In...
Ok, so we're 7 games into the 2008-09 NBA season and what have we learned about this edition of the Trail Blazers?
Firstly, even though Steve Blake is tough, intelligent and a steady shooter, and Sergio can speed the game up and thread the needle with a pass, we now realize that a Blazers' championship team will not have either one as its starting point guard. (Bayless might, but he'd require significant improvement in rapidly "reading the floor", in anticipating players' on-court movement, and in consistently hitting the 18'-23' shot…imagine a combination of Blake's shooting and judgment, and Sergio's passing ability). And a championship point guard also needs enough quickness to defend championship-contending point guards. Sergio nor Blake has that. Bayless has the speed already, but do we have time to wait for the rest of the above to be developed in Bayless? No.
So, what's changed? Why have we suddenly lost the luxury of waiting for players to develop over time? Simple answer - Nicolas Batum. Batum, in his rapid ascension to importance in the team's rotation at only 19 years of age, has fully demonstrated that "when you've got it, you've got it". He's a natural – not only physically, but he's got the goods mentally as well. The kid is basically unflappable. And he believes in himself. He is not a 'project'. His learning curve is a year or less. And Batum has an advantage over Bayless in that their respective positions require different degrees of focal importance. Point guards are too 'front-and-center' and thus, it's too risky to gamble on a developmental player. Not under the intense scrutiny of prime-time NBA play.
We realize for sure that, in his 5th year, Travis Outlaw is a complete stud. Travis arrived in Portland when the team wasn't in contention for anything and, therefore, they had the time to develop him. Somebody saw something in this young man and was willing to cultivate it and mine it. Never say never, but Travis may become one of the "four untouchables" on this team. At a recent home game, he snared, gobbled, and devoured 13 rebounds off the bench. He must scare opponents to death. When he rises to pinnacle height to release his shot, defenders are left to only wave at the tie-strings on his shorts. And he's blocking shots and tipping passes, too. So, secondly, we now know that Travis can do it. And as far as being a starter, there are tons of NBA starters who don't play 40 minutes a game, as Travis did against the Magic.
Thirdly, this team must have a worrisome behemoth in the middle. The Blazers can't fake it. They've been muscled by Amare Stoudemire, Al Jefferson and Dwight Howard…at will. Joel's no cupcake, but he just doesn't have the mass to slow those guys down without fouling. And if "Mr. Bulk-o-Rama Man", who we need so much, could score 10+ points down low and pass out to shooters quickly when double-teamed, THEN we'd have the necessary blend of team skills to advance.
Joel is a necessary compliment to Channing Frye. Channing isn't soft, he's just doesn't defend well. With a 2nd-unit frontline of Travis, Joel & Channing, there's enough banging from T & J to cover for Channing. And don't forget - Fernandez boards!
Fourthly, Rudy is the real deal. We hope he's also the Energizer Bunny, because he go-go-goes all out, all the time. No wonder Spain didn't start him. He'd be out of juice by halftime. Orlando Magic's TV announcers mentioned him as a legitimate candidate for R.O.Y.
Lastly, we also now know what the questions are:
1) Can Greg Oden stay healthy for 80% of the season?
2) Can G.O. command double teams and pass out of them quickly?
3) Will Travis give us his best effort every game?
4) Will Rudy pace himself enough to maximize his contribution?
5) Will the Blazers package some picks, talent & their cap space to acquire a fleet-afoot, good-decision-making, deadly shooting point guard?
Go Blazers.
Firstly, even though Steve Blake is tough, intelligent and a steady shooter, and Sergio can speed the game up and thread the needle with a pass, we now realize that a Blazers' championship team will not have either one as its starting point guard. (Bayless might, but he'd require significant improvement in rapidly "reading the floor", in anticipating players' on-court movement, and in consistently hitting the 18'-23' shot…imagine a combination of Blake's shooting and judgment, and Sergio's passing ability). And a championship point guard also needs enough quickness to defend championship-contending point guards. Sergio nor Blake has that. Bayless has the speed already, but do we have time to wait for the rest of the above to be developed in Bayless? No.
So, what's changed? Why have we suddenly lost the luxury of waiting for players to develop over time? Simple answer - Nicolas Batum. Batum, in his rapid ascension to importance in the team's rotation at only 19 years of age, has fully demonstrated that "when you've got it, you've got it". He's a natural – not only physically, but he's got the goods mentally as well. The kid is basically unflappable. And he believes in himself. He is not a 'project'. His learning curve is a year or less. And Batum has an advantage over Bayless in that their respective positions require different degrees of focal importance. Point guards are too 'front-and-center' and thus, it's too risky to gamble on a developmental player. Not under the intense scrutiny of prime-time NBA play.
We realize for sure that, in his 5th year, Travis Outlaw is a complete stud. Travis arrived in Portland when the team wasn't in contention for anything and, therefore, they had the time to develop him. Somebody saw something in this young man and was willing to cultivate it and mine it. Never say never, but Travis may become one of the "four untouchables" on this team. At a recent home game, he snared, gobbled, and devoured 13 rebounds off the bench. He must scare opponents to death. When he rises to pinnacle height to release his shot, defenders are left to only wave at the tie-strings on his shorts. And he's blocking shots and tipping passes, too. So, secondly, we now know that Travis can do it. And as far as being a starter, there are tons of NBA starters who don't play 40 minutes a game, as Travis did against the Magic.
Thirdly, this team must have a worrisome behemoth in the middle. The Blazers can't fake it. They've been muscled by Amare Stoudemire, Al Jefferson and Dwight Howard…at will. Joel's no cupcake, but he just doesn't have the mass to slow those guys down without fouling. And if "Mr. Bulk-o-Rama Man", who we need so much, could score 10+ points down low and pass out to shooters quickly when double-teamed, THEN we'd have the necessary blend of team skills to advance.
Joel is a necessary compliment to Channing Frye. Channing isn't soft, he's just doesn't defend well. With a 2nd-unit frontline of Travis, Joel & Channing, there's enough banging from T & J to cover for Channing. And don't forget - Fernandez boards!
Fourthly, Rudy is the real deal. We hope he's also the Energizer Bunny, because he go-go-goes all out, all the time. No wonder Spain didn't start him. He'd be out of juice by halftime. Orlando Magic's TV announcers mentioned him as a legitimate candidate for R.O.Y.
Lastly, we also now know what the questions are:
1) Can Greg Oden stay healthy for 80% of the season?
2) Can G.O. command double teams and pass out of them quickly?
3) Will Travis give us his best effort every game?
4) Will Rudy pace himself enough to maximize his contribution?
5) Will the Blazers package some picks, talent & their cap space to acquire a fleet-afoot, good-decision-making, deadly shooting point guard?
Go Blazers.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Huh?
Reader Ken Chaitin of Portland has it right. It’s not that the Blazers lost one game. It’s not that they lost on national TV. And it’s not even that Greg Oden suffered a 2-4 week tweak of his foot. No, no, and no. It’s because the threatening-new-force-in-the-Western-Conference – the same ones who are the Darlings of the Basketball’s Future – flat out never @#$%^& showed up!
I know Mr. Chaitin. When he compromises something near and dear to him, the entity for whom he made said sacrifice should darn well take heed and take things seriously. Just as my fiancé, who hates cats and who is allergic to cats, looked past her self and gave me a kitten for my birthday, Ken C. (the dedicated non-smoker) went way out of his comfort zone to honor and celebrate the ‘new’ Blazers by going to Claudia’s pub on Hawthorne in SE Portland, filled with smoke as it was, to watch the game on TV and to give of himself for the “cause”. Brave and noble man.
Ken and I, and maybe even you, should be learning by now that what athletes ‘say’ rarely has anything to do with what they will actually demonstrate in battle. Brandon Roy, ballyhooed spokesperson for the players, said recently that, “we’re ready” to play in a counting game. Phooey to that! Heck, the Cleveland Cavaliers were obviously ready to take it to the Champs in Boston. Great game. Great effort by all. Are the Lakers not impressive enough – either by hype or from our deep-seated grrrrrr – to take them seriously? When the Lakers’ coach, Phil Jackson, implored his team to scratch for every win in order to gain home court advantage throughout the playoffs, did he not speak for every professional athlete’s obligation to their fans? What possible excuse is there to not show up? I’m open to hearing any well-reasoned explanations.
In 1992, when the Blazers were playing the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals in Las Vegas (because the game could not safely be played in Los Angeles because of the dangerous ‘Rodney King’ riots), Magic Johnson was the color analyst for the great Dick Enberg’s play-by-play. Magic says to Dick something like (I have the actual quote on video tape), “People around the NBA aren’t aware of this, but there is a real strong rivalry between the Lakers and Portland – it goes both ways and its been going on for a long time.” What greater authority does one need to hear it from? Hmmm? Not Canzano or that Puff in the Morning. It’s real. It’s palpable, and those @#$%^& Blazers don’t even try? ‘Splain it to me.
I know Mr. Chaitin. When he compromises something near and dear to him, the entity for whom he made said sacrifice should darn well take heed and take things seriously. Just as my fiancé, who hates cats and who is allergic to cats, looked past her self and gave me a kitten for my birthday, Ken C. (the dedicated non-smoker) went way out of his comfort zone to honor and celebrate the ‘new’ Blazers by going to Claudia’s pub on Hawthorne in SE Portland, filled with smoke as it was, to watch the game on TV and to give of himself for the “cause”. Brave and noble man.
Ken and I, and maybe even you, should be learning by now that what athletes ‘say’ rarely has anything to do with what they will actually demonstrate in battle. Brandon Roy, ballyhooed spokesperson for the players, said recently that, “we’re ready” to play in a counting game. Phooey to that! Heck, the Cleveland Cavaliers were obviously ready to take it to the Champs in Boston. Great game. Great effort by all. Are the Lakers not impressive enough – either by hype or from our deep-seated grrrrrr – to take them seriously? When the Lakers’ coach, Phil Jackson, implored his team to scratch for every win in order to gain home court advantage throughout the playoffs, did he not speak for every professional athlete’s obligation to their fans? What possible excuse is there to not show up? I’m open to hearing any well-reasoned explanations.
In 1992, when the Blazers were playing the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals in Las Vegas (because the game could not safely be played in Los Angeles because of the dangerous ‘Rodney King’ riots), Magic Johnson was the color analyst for the great Dick Enberg’s play-by-play. Magic says to Dick something like (I have the actual quote on video tape), “People around the NBA aren’t aware of this, but there is a real strong rivalry between the Lakers and Portland – it goes both ways and its been going on for a long time.” What greater authority does one need to hear it from? Hmmm? Not Canzano or that Puff in the Morning. It’s real. It’s palpable, and those @#$%^& Blazers don’t even try? ‘Splain it to me.
Friday, October 17, 2008
A Healthier Perspective
There's a malaise across Rip City this preseason which we didn't see coming. Call it a collective funk. While the rash of injuries and the long, draggy spans between games have been bummers, they're not even suspect contributors. And, contrary to popular opinion, the major cause isn't even the disappointing performances of some of the players on which we've hung our hopes. No, friends, the culprit is - us. It's our obsessive micro-focusing on the minute-by-minute travails of this evolving ball club. We've been like a dieter who gets on the scale every hour expecting nothing but forward progress. That's nuts. It doesn't work that way. As Confucius might have said, "Person who rides roller coaster not expecting ups and downs is a looney tune".
A less manic appraisal of this current Trail Blazers squad might tell us that, all-and-all, things ain't quite so bad. Here's a healthier - and likely more accurate - assessment of where this team stands:
Greg Oden: He's going to be all that we thought he would be. His redshirt year was about getting his physical problems behind him. His rookie season is about getting his psyche back to where it was at Ohio State. As a Buckeye, he was among his peers. Not so much in talent and impact on a game, but in age, maturity, and in feeling at home in the seemingly secure womb of a college campus. He was comfortable in who he was. When he bowed to us from the platform in Pioneer Square just 15 months ago, he was mentally still a wide-eyed college freshman. He was yet to learn how needy and crazy-for-winning Rip City is and how desperately we need and want a Basketball Messiah. He thought it was just a simple pep rally, when, in fact, it was a religious revival.
The best thing to happen to Oden's shaken and confused psyche could be the arrival of Rudy Fernandez. Greg just wants to play basketball and contribute to team success. When fans & the media re-directed their rabid and all-consuming attention recently to the young Spaniard - who is fully capable of handling adoration - Greg had an opportunity to relax a little. But Oden, I fear, is scarred for the short term, and it will take about 3 months of less intense fan focus for the young man to be at ease. Oden, at 20, is probably younger than Fernandez was at 20. The 3+ years difference in Rudy's and Greg's ages, and Rudy's 7 year exposure to the near-bigtime are quite a chasm. Whether Oden will ever be comfortable with rock star-level attention is unknown, but he will be a lot better at 23 than he is now. And he will be productively better by mid-season of this year. The 'man' Oden will one day be, will be part Bill Russell, part Shaq and part Akeem, but for this year he just has to be Greg. We need to back off and let him return to who he really is.
Brandon, LaMarcus, and Channing: They're top drawer, offensively, and are likely better than last year. Brandon's overall contribution is greater than the quality of his play. His presence in games is paramount to this team's success.
Steve: Worth more than we knew. If a Chris Paul comes along for this team, then Blake's starting job is gone, but he is so important to the team overall, that absent a top-tier Point Guard, the starting job belongs to Steve.
Martell: Injured for now, but when in good health he's probably better than last year. At just 21, Martell probably hasn't peaked in skill development. If he can add better ball handling and better 8'-12' shooting to his repertoire, he will be difficult to unseat at starting Small Forward.
Joel: A rock. He doesn't get enough press, but its because he so steadily brings it every night, without flash. Realistically, the Blazers couldn't ask for a better White Team Center.
Travis: He has maxed his development. But who he was coming off the bench last season was plenty darn good. If Travis can live with being a killer Small Forward in the second unit, he has a home.
Sergio: Delightfully, he's still improving. And not microscopically. He easily seems better centered and unafraid to make mistakes. Like Oden, his psyche has been his barrier to NBA-level productivity. All it took was one summer of proper self-evaluation and honing his physical skills to make this obvious improvement. An odds-on lock at Point Guard for the White Team.
Rudy: A real blessing. Thank you Paul & KP, and thank you scouts. It's been said that Fernandez is Maravich-like. Is he like Pete overall? No, he's no Pistol. Pete had him in ball handling. But in passing and shooting, absolutely yes. Like Brandon, Rudy can play multiple positions when needed. More than any other White Team member, Rudy will always push for Black Team consideration.
Nic Batum: We don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but this kid does have significant promise. He's flirting with starting at Small Forward for game 1 as of this writing, but upon the return of Martell from injury, Batum's utilization will be situational. If his shot becomes dependable, then his wing defense, rebounding, shot blocking and ball handling will put him at a distinct advantage over Travis in the second unit.
Jerryd: In a pinch he can be a multi-positional player, but for now, he hasn't shone at any one position yet. He is definitely having a rocky start to his rookie season. Minus injuries to other players, Bayless' playing time will be sparse this year. But his upside is way better than that of a garbage-time player. That was no garbage player in Summer League. But Summer League ain't the NBA. Even when he settles in, his problem with cracking the rotation will be the relative young age of the point guards ahead of him. This is why you're hearing the term 'odd man out'. Will Jerryd ever learn to pass like Rodriquez? Will he ever see the floor as Blake does? Has Bayless' brief basketball career been too much about Jerryd and less about 'team'? His intensity and will to win say "no", but his lack of point guard skills, floor vision and apparent clueless-ness about how to involve teammates, says the opposite. True, the great point guard, 6'3" Terry Porter, came out of college as a Power Forward (really?) and successfully learned his new position by the end of his second year. To do it, he had plenty of playing time. Bayless won't have that advantage. He's in a tough spot.
Summary: What is needed, offensively, is for opponents to be concerned about every Blazers starter, and, therefore, not be able to effectively double-team any of them. Oden is already more dangerous than most of the centers he'll face this year. The likelihood that he's a 70% free throw shooter is just one of his degrees of separation. With a tandem at center controlling the boards - which Greg will be doing within 15 games - in Oden and Pryzbilla, the team will get more shot attempts than last year. Rebound totals for the Blazers and fouls by the opposition will greatly increase this year. Aldridge, a probable team leader in scoring, will be even freer to stick it to 'em. Roy is an All-Star (always respected by league coaches and players) and is entering his most productive years. Blake will have a career season this year. For the short term the least scary Blazers position for the enemy is small forward. The position will have its own micro-rotation of players until Martell returns. Martell will need to nail his three-pointers at a 40% clip to be the worrisome monster we need.
Defensively, the only weakness which hasn't improved is matador defense at the power forward position. LaMarcus isn't likely to change his stripes - ever, so Nate will just have to devise a method of masking it. All the other positions will be improved in this area. And good defensive play rubs off on everybody. Steals will edge up in numbers with hulking Oden looming back there to cover teammates' defensive gambles.
The remaining the question, then, is how long team chemistry will take to jell. The 1977 Championship Blazers were basically new to each other at that year's training camp. Starters Lucas and Twardzik and key reserves Herm Gilliam and Johnny Davis were brand new to the team. Bill Walton, Bobby Gross, and Lloyd Neal were very young. Not only is it inaccurate to claim that "jelling as a team" requires slow cooking for several years, the reverse has already proven possible within this very franchise's history. From sea level to Mt. Everest in one season. Will the current squad pull that off? No. But this team has more raw talent than those NBA Champs. The '77 crew, however, had mega basketball smarts and toughness - two factors not to be ignored in explaining their meteoric rise to glory. The current team has yet to demonstrate either.
So what can we expect this year? Team management wisely tries to dampen high expectations, but this team will do better out of the starting gate than projected (I mean they have two NBA-quality units, for heaven's sake). They'll come together quicker than most because they truly care about winning as a team, and except for possibly Travis and Bayless, they don't care who gets the credit. Sergio's and Rudy's passing, and Greg's, Joel's and Nic's shot blocking will light a fire on a nightly basis. The team will begin to run as they get better suited at doing it. Remember the two reverse dunks, Sergio-to-Travis, in the last game against Memphis? Well, add Rudy, Nic and Martell to that scenario, 'cuz they gonna fly, too!
Record After 41 Games: 24-17, .590;
Record After 82 Games: 53-29; .646.
A less manic appraisal of this current Trail Blazers squad might tell us that, all-and-all, things ain't quite so bad. Here's a healthier - and likely more accurate - assessment of where this team stands:
Greg Oden: He's going to be all that we thought he would be. His redshirt year was about getting his physical problems behind him. His rookie season is about getting his psyche back to where it was at Ohio State. As a Buckeye, he was among his peers. Not so much in talent and impact on a game, but in age, maturity, and in feeling at home in the seemingly secure womb of a college campus. He was comfortable in who he was. When he bowed to us from the platform in Pioneer Square just 15 months ago, he was mentally still a wide-eyed college freshman. He was yet to learn how needy and crazy-for-winning Rip City is and how desperately we need and want a Basketball Messiah. He thought it was just a simple pep rally, when, in fact, it was a religious revival.
The best thing to happen to Oden's shaken and confused psyche could be the arrival of Rudy Fernandez. Greg just wants to play basketball and contribute to team success. When fans & the media re-directed their rabid and all-consuming attention recently to the young Spaniard - who is fully capable of handling adoration - Greg had an opportunity to relax a little. But Oden, I fear, is scarred for the short term, and it will take about 3 months of less intense fan focus for the young man to be at ease. Oden, at 20, is probably younger than Fernandez was at 20. The 3+ years difference in Rudy's and Greg's ages, and Rudy's 7 year exposure to the near-bigtime are quite a chasm. Whether Oden will ever be comfortable with rock star-level attention is unknown, but he will be a lot better at 23 than he is now. And he will be productively better by mid-season of this year. The 'man' Oden will one day be, will be part Bill Russell, part Shaq and part Akeem, but for this year he just has to be Greg. We need to back off and let him return to who he really is.
Brandon, LaMarcus, and Channing: They're top drawer, offensively, and are likely better than last year. Brandon's overall contribution is greater than the quality of his play. His presence in games is paramount to this team's success.
Steve: Worth more than we knew. If a Chris Paul comes along for this team, then Blake's starting job is gone, but he is so important to the team overall, that absent a top-tier Point Guard, the starting job belongs to Steve.
Martell: Injured for now, but when in good health he's probably better than last year. At just 21, Martell probably hasn't peaked in skill development. If he can add better ball handling and better 8'-12' shooting to his repertoire, he will be difficult to unseat at starting Small Forward.
Joel: A rock. He doesn't get enough press, but its because he so steadily brings it every night, without flash. Realistically, the Blazers couldn't ask for a better White Team Center.
Travis: He has maxed his development. But who he was coming off the bench last season was plenty darn good. If Travis can live with being a killer Small Forward in the second unit, he has a home.
Sergio: Delightfully, he's still improving. And not microscopically. He easily seems better centered and unafraid to make mistakes. Like Oden, his psyche has been his barrier to NBA-level productivity. All it took was one summer of proper self-evaluation and honing his physical skills to make this obvious improvement. An odds-on lock at Point Guard for the White Team.
Rudy: A real blessing. Thank you Paul & KP, and thank you scouts. It's been said that Fernandez is Maravich-like. Is he like Pete overall? No, he's no Pistol. Pete had him in ball handling. But in passing and shooting, absolutely yes. Like Brandon, Rudy can play multiple positions when needed. More than any other White Team member, Rudy will always push for Black Team consideration.
Nic Batum: We don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but this kid does have significant promise. He's flirting with starting at Small Forward for game 1 as of this writing, but upon the return of Martell from injury, Batum's utilization will be situational. If his shot becomes dependable, then his wing defense, rebounding, shot blocking and ball handling will put him at a distinct advantage over Travis in the second unit.
Jerryd: In a pinch he can be a multi-positional player, but for now, he hasn't shone at any one position yet. He is definitely having a rocky start to his rookie season. Minus injuries to other players, Bayless' playing time will be sparse this year. But his upside is way better than that of a garbage-time player. That was no garbage player in Summer League. But Summer League ain't the NBA. Even when he settles in, his problem with cracking the rotation will be the relative young age of the point guards ahead of him. This is why you're hearing the term 'odd man out'. Will Jerryd ever learn to pass like Rodriquez? Will he ever see the floor as Blake does? Has Bayless' brief basketball career been too much about Jerryd and less about 'team'? His intensity and will to win say "no", but his lack of point guard skills, floor vision and apparent clueless-ness about how to involve teammates, says the opposite. True, the great point guard, 6'3" Terry Porter, came out of college as a Power Forward (really?) and successfully learned his new position by the end of his second year. To do it, he had plenty of playing time. Bayless won't have that advantage. He's in a tough spot.
Summary: What is needed, offensively, is for opponents to be concerned about every Blazers starter, and, therefore, not be able to effectively double-team any of them. Oden is already more dangerous than most of the centers he'll face this year. The likelihood that he's a 70% free throw shooter is just one of his degrees of separation. With a tandem at center controlling the boards - which Greg will be doing within 15 games - in Oden and Pryzbilla, the team will get more shot attempts than last year. Rebound totals for the Blazers and fouls by the opposition will greatly increase this year. Aldridge, a probable team leader in scoring, will be even freer to stick it to 'em. Roy is an All-Star (always respected by league coaches and players) and is entering his most productive years. Blake will have a career season this year. For the short term the least scary Blazers position for the enemy is small forward. The position will have its own micro-rotation of players until Martell returns. Martell will need to nail his three-pointers at a 40% clip to be the worrisome monster we need.
Defensively, the only weakness which hasn't improved is matador defense at the power forward position. LaMarcus isn't likely to change his stripes - ever, so Nate will just have to devise a method of masking it. All the other positions will be improved in this area. And good defensive play rubs off on everybody. Steals will edge up in numbers with hulking Oden looming back there to cover teammates' defensive gambles.
The remaining the question, then, is how long team chemistry will take to jell. The 1977 Championship Blazers were basically new to each other at that year's training camp. Starters Lucas and Twardzik and key reserves Herm Gilliam and Johnny Davis were brand new to the team. Bill Walton, Bobby Gross, and Lloyd Neal were very young. Not only is it inaccurate to claim that "jelling as a team" requires slow cooking for several years, the reverse has already proven possible within this very franchise's history. From sea level to Mt. Everest in one season. Will the current squad pull that off? No. But this team has more raw talent than those NBA Champs. The '77 crew, however, had mega basketball smarts and toughness - two factors not to be ignored in explaining their meteoric rise to glory. The current team has yet to demonstrate either.
So what can we expect this year? Team management wisely tries to dampen high expectations, but this team will do better out of the starting gate than projected (I mean they have two NBA-quality units, for heaven's sake). They'll come together quicker than most because they truly care about winning as a team, and except for possibly Travis and Bayless, they don't care who gets the credit. Sergio's and Rudy's passing, and Greg's, Joel's and Nic's shot blocking will light a fire on a nightly basis. The team will begin to run as they get better suited at doing it. Remember the two reverse dunks, Sergio-to-Travis, in the last game against Memphis? Well, add Rudy, Nic and Martell to that scenario, 'cuz they gonna fly, too!
Record After 41 Games: 24-17, .590;
Record After 82 Games: 53-29; .646.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)