There's a malaise across Rip City this preseason which we didn't see coming. Call it a collective funk. While the rash of injuries and the long, draggy spans between games have been bummers, they're not even suspect contributors. And, contrary to popular opinion, the major cause isn't even the disappointing performances of some of the players on which we've hung our hopes. No, friends, the culprit is - us. It's our obsessive micro-focusing on the minute-by-minute travails of this evolving ball club. We've been like a dieter who gets on the scale every hour expecting nothing but forward progress. That's nuts. It doesn't work that way. As Confucius might have said, "Person who rides roller coaster not expecting ups and downs is a looney tune".
A less manic appraisal of this current Trail Blazers squad might tell us that, all-and-all, things ain't quite so bad. Here's a healthier - and likely more accurate - assessment of where this team stands:
Greg Oden: He's going to be all that we thought he would be. His redshirt year was about getting his physical problems behind him. His rookie season is about getting his psyche back to where it was at Ohio State. As a Buckeye, he was among his peers. Not so much in talent and impact on a game, but in age, maturity, and in feeling at home in the seemingly secure womb of a college campus. He was comfortable in who he was. When he bowed to us from the platform in Pioneer Square just 15 months ago, he was mentally still a wide-eyed college freshman. He was yet to learn how needy and crazy-for-winning Rip City is and how desperately we need and want a Basketball Messiah. He thought it was just a simple pep rally, when, in fact, it was a religious revival.
The best thing to happen to Oden's shaken and confused psyche could be the arrival of Rudy Fernandez. Greg just wants to play basketball and contribute to team success. When fans & the media re-directed their rabid and all-consuming attention recently to the young Spaniard - who is fully capable of handling adoration - Greg had an opportunity to relax a little. But Oden, I fear, is scarred for the short term, and it will take about 3 months of less intense fan focus for the young man to be at ease. Oden, at 20, is probably younger than Fernandez was at 20. The 3+ years difference in Rudy's and Greg's ages, and Rudy's 7 year exposure to the near-bigtime are quite a chasm. Whether Oden will ever be comfortable with rock star-level attention is unknown, but he will be a lot better at 23 than he is now. And he will be productively better by mid-season of this year. The 'man' Oden will one day be, will be part Bill Russell, part Shaq and part Akeem, but for this year he just has to be Greg. We need to back off and let him return to who he really is.
Brandon, LaMarcus, and Channing: They're top drawer, offensively, and are likely better than last year. Brandon's overall contribution is greater than the quality of his play. His presence in games is paramount to this team's success.
Steve: Worth more than we knew. If a Chris Paul comes along for this team, then Blake's starting job is gone, but he is so important to the team overall, that absent a top-tier Point Guard, the starting job belongs to Steve.
Martell: Injured for now, but when in good health he's probably better than last year. At just 21, Martell probably hasn't peaked in skill development. If he can add better ball handling and better 8'-12' shooting to his repertoire, he will be difficult to unseat at starting Small Forward.
Joel: A rock. He doesn't get enough press, but its because he so steadily brings it every night, without flash. Realistically, the Blazers couldn't ask for a better White Team Center.
Travis: He has maxed his development. But who he was coming off the bench last season was plenty darn good. If Travis can live with being a killer Small Forward in the second unit, he has a home.
Sergio: Delightfully, he's still improving. And not microscopically. He easily seems better centered and unafraid to make mistakes. Like Oden, his psyche has been his barrier to NBA-level productivity. All it took was one summer of proper self-evaluation and honing his physical skills to make this obvious improvement. An odds-on lock at Point Guard for the White Team.
Rudy: A real blessing. Thank you Paul & KP, and thank you scouts. It's been said that Fernandez is Maravich-like. Is he like Pete overall? No, he's no Pistol. Pete had him in ball handling. But in passing and shooting, absolutely yes. Like Brandon, Rudy can play multiple positions when needed. More than any other White Team member, Rudy will always push for Black Team consideration.
Nic Batum: We don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but this kid does have significant promise. He's flirting with starting at Small Forward for game 1 as of this writing, but upon the return of Martell from injury, Batum's utilization will be situational. If his shot becomes dependable, then his wing defense, rebounding, shot blocking and ball handling will put him at a distinct advantage over Travis in the second unit.
Jerryd: In a pinch he can be a multi-positional player, but for now, he hasn't shone at any one position yet. He is definitely having a rocky start to his rookie season. Minus injuries to other players, Bayless' playing time will be sparse this year. But his upside is way better than that of a garbage-time player. That was no garbage player in Summer League. But Summer League ain't the NBA. Even when he settles in, his problem with cracking the rotation will be the relative young age of the point guards ahead of him. This is why you're hearing the term 'odd man out'. Will Jerryd ever learn to pass like Rodriquez? Will he ever see the floor as Blake does? Has Bayless' brief basketball career been too much about Jerryd and less about 'team'? His intensity and will to win say "no", but his lack of point guard skills, floor vision and apparent clueless-ness about how to involve teammates, says the opposite. True, the great point guard, 6'3" Terry Porter, came out of college as a Power Forward (really?) and successfully learned his new position by the end of his second year. To do it, he had plenty of playing time. Bayless won't have that advantage. He's in a tough spot.
Summary: What is needed, offensively, is for opponents to be concerned about every Blazers starter, and, therefore, not be able to effectively double-team any of them. Oden is already more dangerous than most of the centers he'll face this year. The likelihood that he's a 70% free throw shooter is just one of his degrees of separation. With a tandem at center controlling the boards - which Greg will be doing within 15 games - in Oden and Pryzbilla, the team will get more shot attempts than last year. Rebound totals for the Blazers and fouls by the opposition will greatly increase this year. Aldridge, a probable team leader in scoring, will be even freer to stick it to 'em. Roy is an All-Star (always respected by league coaches and players) and is entering his most productive years. Blake will have a career season this year. For the short term the least scary Blazers position for the enemy is small forward. The position will have its own micro-rotation of players until Martell returns. Martell will need to nail his three-pointers at a 40% clip to be the worrisome monster we need.
Defensively, the only weakness which hasn't improved is matador defense at the power forward position. LaMarcus isn't likely to change his stripes - ever, so Nate will just have to devise a method of masking it. All the other positions will be improved in this area. And good defensive play rubs off on everybody. Steals will edge up in numbers with hulking Oden looming back there to cover teammates' defensive gambles.
The remaining the question, then, is how long team chemistry will take to jell. The 1977 Championship Blazers were basically new to each other at that year's training camp. Starters Lucas and Twardzik and key reserves Herm Gilliam and Johnny Davis were brand new to the team. Bill Walton, Bobby Gross, and Lloyd Neal were very young. Not only is it inaccurate to claim that "jelling as a team" requires slow cooking for several years, the reverse has already proven possible within this very franchise's history. From sea level to Mt. Everest in one season. Will the current squad pull that off? No. But this team has more raw talent than those NBA Champs. The '77 crew, however, had mega basketball smarts and toughness - two factors not to be ignored in explaining their meteoric rise to glory. The current team has yet to demonstrate either.
So what can we expect this year? Team management wisely tries to dampen high expectations, but this team will do better out of the starting gate than projected (I mean they have two NBA-quality units, for heaven's sake). They'll come together quicker than most because they truly care about winning as a team, and except for possibly Travis and Bayless, they don't care who gets the credit. Sergio's and Rudy's passing, and Greg's, Joel's and Nic's shot blocking will light a fire on a nightly basis. The team will begin to run as they get better suited at doing it. Remember the two reverse dunks, Sergio-to-Travis, in the last game against Memphis? Well, add Rudy, Nic and Martell to that scenario, 'cuz they gonna fly, too!
Record After 41 Games: 24-17, .590;
Record After 82 Games: 53-29; .646.
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